Title

Terms of Trade Shocks and Private Savings in the Developing Countries

Document Type

Article

Language

eng

Format of Original

13 p.; 23 cm

Publication Date

11-2015

Publisher

Elsevier

Source Publication

Journal of Comparative Economics

Source ISSN

0147-5967

Abstract

Economic agents in the developing countries are subject to tight credit constraints, which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic GMM model and data from 45 developing countries confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the developing countries. The transitory component in the terms of trade have a larger positive impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks is found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be relatively small. Results show some differences in the response of savings in the three regions considered here. The results are, however, robust for alternative estimators and determinants.

Comments

Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 43, No. 4 (November 2015): 1122-1134. DOI.