Document Type

Article

Language

eng

Format of Original

11 p.

Publication Date

Winter 2002

Publisher

Wolters Kluwer/Aspen Publishers

Source Publication

Real Estate Finance

Source ISSN

0748-318X

Abstract

Historical data and Monte Carlo simulation is used to examine the likelihood of loan extension and potential losses associated with extension. It is found that extension probability is highly sensitive to property NOI growth, to NOI volatility, to the amortization schedule, and to the loan term. It is found that extension risk is largely unaffected by changing credit spreads, changing yield curve assumptions, and changing term default assumptions. It is found that changing the underwriting standards affects the probability of loan extension in a somewhat muted way. It is estimated that the loss during extension is approximately 2%-3% of the outstanding loan amount at maturity.

Comments

Accepted version. Real Estate Finance, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Winter 2002): 53-63. Publisher Link. © 2002 Aspen Publishers (Wolters Kluwer). Used with permission.

Mark Eppli was affiliated with George Washington University at the time of publication.

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