Document Type

Article

Publication Date

6-2005

Source Publication

Journal of Fixed Income

Source ISSN

1059-8596

Abstract

Does delinquency have any predictive power for the future performance of a mortgage? Analysis of a sample of subprime mortgages from the Loanperformance database on securitized private-label pool collateral using a two-step estimation procedure to control for the endogeneity of delinquency reveals strong support for the distressed prepayment theory that very delinquent loans are more likely to prepay than to default and that prepayment rates increase substantially as delinquency intensity increases. While delinquency leads predominantly to termination of a loan through prepayment, negative equity leads to termination through default. Does delinquency have any predictive power for the future performance of a mortgage? Analysis of a sample of subprime mortgages from the Loanperformance database on securitized private-label pool collateral using a two-step estimation procedure to control for the endogeneity of delinquency reveals strong support for the distressed prepayment theory that very delinquent loans are more likely to prepay than to default and that prepayment rates increase substantially as delinquency intensity increases. While delinquency leads predominantly to termination of a loan through prepayment, negative equity leads to termination through default.

Comments

Accepted version. Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 15, No. 1 (June 2005): 28-39. DOI. © Institutional Investor, Inc. 2005. Used with permission.

Anthony Pennington-Cross was affiliated with The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Research Division at the time of publication.