Global Convergence of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number and Estimation from Early-time SIR Dynamics
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
The SIR (‘susceptible-infectious-recovered’) formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number inferred from SIR formulation. The work here shows that there is global convergence (i.e., across many nations) to an uncontrolled Ro=4.5 that describes the early time spread of COVID-19. This value is in agreement with independent estimates from other sources reviewed here and adds to the growing consensus that the early estimate of Ro=2.2 adopted by the World Health Organization is low. A reconciliation between power-law and exponential growth predictions is also featured within the confines of the SIR formulation. The effects of testing ramp-up and the role of ‘super-spreaders’ on the inference of Ro are analyzed using idealized scenarios. Implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled Ro are briefly discussed in the context of the maximum possible infected fraction of the population (needed to assess health care capacity) and mortality (especially in the USA given diverging projections). Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in Ro>2.7 within 44 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19.
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Katul, Gabriel G.; Mrad, Asaad; Bonetti, Sara; Manolia, Gabriele; and Parolari, Anthony J., "Global Convergence of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Number and Estimation from Early-time SIR Dynamics" (2020). Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications. 262.
ADA Accessible Version
Published version. PLoS One, Vol. 15, No. 9 (September 24, 2020). DOI. © 2020 Katul et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Used with permission.