Document Type

Article

Publication Date

6-2026

Publisher

Elsevier

Source Publication

Journal of Macroeconomics

Source ISSN

0164-0704

Abstract

The impact of central bank transparency on the evolution of agents’ expectations for the Mexican case is evaluated in this paper via a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning and survey forecasts. Among the multiple scenarios analyzed, the data prefer the observed transparency degree followed by the Mexican central bank, where the central bank not only credibly communicates the inflation target but also discloses relevant information about its policy rule. The results indicate that agents exhibit a faster learning speed than the U.S. and a declining perception of inflation persistence. Plus, the model-implied learning mechanism can match the empirical inflation expectations from the Survey on Expectations of Private Sector Specialists. Moreover, there is evidence suggesting that higher degrees of transparency increase the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing the economy.

Comments

Accepted version. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 88, 103751 (June 2026). DOI. © 2026 Elsevier Inc. Used with permission.

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