Date of Award

7-1951

Degree Type

Master's Essay - Restricted

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Mathematical and Statistical Sciences

Abstract

When statistical data pertaining to diseases is studied over a period of years, one important factor is brought to light, namely, that most infectious diseases display some marked regularity secular trend, or cyclical pattern. This pattern may be seasonal, annual, or irregular. The pattern for acute poliomyelitis may be classified as a seasonal variation with an annual recurrence. This property of acute poliomyelitis is the basis for the method of forecasting to be outlined in this essay.

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