Date of Award


Degree Type

Master's Essay - Restricted

Degree Name

Master of Business Administration (MBA)


In an era of national fuel shortage, the ability if a natural gas distribution utility to predict its fuel needs is becoming a economic necessity. No longer can transmission companies grant the distribution companies the extra gas they suddenly need without charging exorbitant rates. Because of the annual contractual agreement with the transmission company, the utility must estimate its annual fuel requirements as well as the maximum daily quantity (MDQ) it will buy. (In this and future discussions, the quantity bought is the same as the quantity sold which also is called the sendout.) Once established, these levels cannot be exceeded without incurring the penalty mentioned above. Since there are quite a few days during the year when it is possible for the MDQ to be exceeded, the daily sales must be estimated in advance. The purpose of this study is to develop an estimating formula by statistical methods to predict daily sales.